What will really be the consequences of withdrawing from JCPOA? Probably not much. It was really no surprise, since Trump's 2016 Campaign Platform had doing this as one of his objectives. The main thing that Iran gained from America under JCPOA was unfreezing of their assets in the US. The Ayatollahs have already collected the money. As for the sanctions---they won't have much effect on either the US or Iranian economy. We never had nearly the level of trade with Iran that they have with Europe.
In fact, aside from a rather picturesque US-flag burning in the Iranian Congress, Iran has expressed less outrage over this than the American Left has. Certainly there have been the perfunctory remarks about the Great Satan, but Iranian officials in Europe have been saying that they're glad that the US is gone---calling us an obstruction.
The Iranians actually have a good point. While the other members of JCPOA have implemented all their conditions, US-Iranian relations haven't changed much. The US has argued---without proof---that Iran is secretly building atomic weapons. Iran has argued---with a lot of proof---that the majority of concessions that former Secretary of State John Kerry agreed to have never been fulfilled.
Obama forgets to tell us that. He also forgets that he was against JCPOA until it was a fait accompli. Then he jumped on the bandwagon and pretended---for the sake of his 'legacy' that he had achieved some monumental foreign policy coup. JCPOA was really accomplished through the diplomatic efforts of China. China and Russia were already trading with Iran---the diplomatic coup was bringing Britain and the EU on board. Once that happened, Obama horned in to take credit.
Smarting over this blow to his legacy and cognizant of being exposed for the poseur he was during the whole JCPOA debate, Obama has been fuming that Trump has "isolated America" and "sabotaged American credibility ." As if Trump hasn't done us a favor by getting out of a treaty we had no business with in the first place; or as if Obama didn't double-cross every country he engaged with.
As for weakening America's negotiating position, North Korea thought so little of it that they repatriated some American criminals held in their prisons as a goodwill gesture today.
Trump did say during the campaign that---while he would scrap JCPOA---he was open to negotiating a new treaty. The fact that he's going through with a planned summit with the North Koreans may bode for a future bilateral peace with Iran.
That would be the best outcome by far. Much more meaningful an accomplishment than any of Obama's follies.
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